Football intelligence calibrated to reality
Every fixture across 23 leagues passes through a seven-layer pipeline — Dixon-Coles, walk-forward Elo, Monte Carlo simulation, LightGBM regression, lineup-aware xG scaling, isotonic calibration, and a sanity filter. You get the full report. You decide what to do with it.
An honest analysis engine, not a betting tipster.
Ranked by model confidence, not by bookmaker edge. Every pick carries probability, fair odds, and a clear tier — PREMIUM / STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK.
When confirmed lineups drop one hour before kickoff, attack and defence are rescaled in real time. Missing your star striker drops the Poisson lambda on the spot.
A Bayesian sanity filter catches predictions that defy the fundamentals. Stability tier (ROCK_SOLID → VOLATILE) tells you how reliable the inputs were.
Isotonic regression per league per market keeps 70% picks at 70% in the long run. No more "this looked sure but lost — was the model lying?"
We never hide matches from you because of bookmaker margins. Every fixture in your leagues, every day, fully analysed.
Top picks ranked by composite trust score across all matches. Skim in 30 seconds; drill into any match for the full report.
Seven layers vote. Each one is interpretable. None overrules the others.
Validated on the 2024–25 season — disjoint from training.
Mean Absolute Error of goal predictions, blend vs the better of either single engine. Lower is better. Football has an irreducible floor of ~0.85 MAE due to Poisson variance; our blend operates within 3–5% of that floor on every league we score.
| League | Blend MAE | Pure DC | Pure LGB | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPL | 0.943 | 0.954 | 0.978 | −1.2% |
| La Liga | 0.823 | 0.830 | 0.875 | −0.8% |
| Serie A | 0.849 | 0.878 | 0.864 | −1.7% |
| Bundesliga | 1.028 | 1.050 | 1.050 | −2.0% |
| Ligue 1 | 0.956 | 0.977 | 0.967 | −1.2% |
| Eredivisie | 0.969 | 0.972 | 1.026 | −0.3% |
| Primeira | 0.840 | 0.853 | 0.894 | −1.5% |
No guaranteed wins. No tipping service. No bet-slip selling.
Football is high-variance. Even a perfectly calibrated 75% pick loses one in four times. We expose probabilities; you size the stake.
We never sell betslips, never push parlays, never market hype. The dashboard is an analysis tool, not a subscription to someone else's opinion.
Every pick comes with reasoning, sanity verdict, and stability tier. You read it, you weigh it, you decide whether to act. The model never places bets for you.
Use only money you can afford to lose. Set deposit limits. Take breaks. If betting stops being fun, stop. See our Responsible Gambling page for support resources.
Start free. Upgrade when you want more leagues.
Try the system on the four biggest leagues.
- EPL · La Liga · Serie A · Bundesliga
- Daily briefing with top picks
- 3 full match reports per day
- Sanity + stability flags
- Calibrated probabilities
All 23 leagues, unlimited reports.
- Everything in Free
- All 23 leagues (Ligue 1, Eredivisie, Saudi, Scottish, UCL, UEL...)
- Unlimited match reports
- Lineup-aware adjustments (LAxGM)
- Telegram alerts for top picks
- Personal betting journal
- Export history (CSV)
For the serious analyst.
- Everything in Pro
- Custom watchlists
- API access (REST + webhooks)
- Early-morning alerts (05:00 EAT)
- Private Telegram bot
- Priority email support
All plans include unlimited briefings, no ads, no betslip selling. Cancel any time.
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